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Charts, Stock Picks, and Technical Analysis from an Online Stock Trading Veteran

November 17, 2006

NMX - Nymex Holdings Inc IPO Rewards Market Buyers

Filed under: Online Stock Trading — Online Stock Trading @ 8:41 am

nmx-day-trade-111706.jpgThe long awaited ipo, NMX - Nymex Holdings Inc. opened with over a 100% gain this morning. So is it tradeable? Sure. You could have banked buying over the 5-minute high. Let’s look at this quick day trade.

NMX could easily be filled over the 5-minute high as shown on the chart. Nothing says you have to take a full lot into a trade like this. So set the risk you have as R. The stock opened at 120, and the top of this candlestick is 129, so R = 9 points. Let’s say you want to risk $300 on the trade. You buy 30 shares when the stock rises over 129.

A target of 1R can be set for the whole amount, or half, or a 1/3. It’s up to you and your risk tolerance. Let’s say you choose 1R to sell half and 2R for the rest. In this case the trade would have worked out. The exit points would have been 138, and 147. NMX rose to 152 before turning back down.

So why am I illustrating this? Because many people get the deer caught in headlights syndrome when attempting to play a stock that moves as fast as this, and is as hyped as Nymex Holdings Inc. is.

Plan your day trades ahead of executing them, and leave the emotions at the door. Watch for shorts on other exchange stocks like BOT - CBOT Holdings Inc., and ICE - Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. now. The hype is over.

November 16, 2006

Trading XHB - Homebuilders SPDR ETF and RYL - Ryland Group Inc

Filed under: Stock Picks — Online Stock Trading @ 8:52 pm

Well I bought a partial lot in both the XHB - Homebuilders SPDR ETF, and RYL - Ryland Group Inc.’s stock this trading session. These homebuilder equities have both been on fire, and are breaking out of some extended bases. The action in the stocks could be better, but I bought some of both today strictly because of that action.

xhb-111606.jpg

I could be wrong, and that’s why I only held over a 1/3 lot, but it felt as if those in charge of these trading vehicles today were trying to shake out the longs. I actually like the fact that the stock and ETF didn’t extend themselves with closes at the day highs.

ryl-111606.jpg

I’ll give both about a point stop from entry, which is under the previous daily trailing candlestick on each. That will be raised to the next trailing bar low the following day, if RYL and XHB aren’t stopped tomorrow.

xhb-weekly-111606.jpg

You can see on the XHB weekly chart that the homebuilders are entering some open ground, after the steep slide the sector was hit with late last Spring. We’ll see how these swing trades play out in the next few days.

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