I’ve seen a few opinions around stating that the oil stocks won’t be coming back. Some say they’ve had their run, and a sector shift has happened. Well, I’ll just keep my eyes on the charts. Those charts are telling me commodities are bouncing, and could be making a comeback.

If you’re investing, trading patterns used short-term, work just as well long-term. Looks like the weekly AMEX Oil Index - XOI, has put in a buy signal. Higher lows and higher highs. The oil stocks seem to still be in a steady uptrend. Be braced for higher oil prices.

Gold stocks opened lower, but didn’t waste time breaking through the trendline I showed yesterday.

Resistance in the 150 area has held back the XAU for a year. The index has put in a higher low pivot on the weekly chart. Maybe those bulls are in control. We’ll see if they can push through that area on another run.

Homebuilder stocks TOL and RYL, provided me with a pleasant surprise this morning, with both gapping higher. The double position in both was a bonus. Both were sold. When I have a stock that gaps higher, I’ll usually sell 1/2 using a tight trail stop at the open, and set a target with stop-loss for the second half.

BIDU had a buy signal yesterday and was good for an entry over the 5-minute high today.

Gold stocks gapped higher with the XAU near the daily 20-day moving average. That moving average is a major one, and will act as support, or in this case, resistance. When a stock or index gaps to a major moving average early in the morning, I’ll move down to a smaller time frame to watch for an entry. In this case, the XAU formed a base at it’s 30-minute high on the 5-minute chart.

My favorite gold trading stocks include GG, AEM, and AUY. I also trade the gold sector ETF, GDX. When the XAU breaks above the 30-minute high, there’s a chance to enter. Depending on risk, you can use the low of the day, or under the base. You’ll often see strong moves off 20, and 50 day moving averages in this scenario. Gold stocks played that way today. Ugly shows a nice entry in AUY using a 30-minute chart. You can see the two buy signals on the 5-minute candlestick chart.

The XAU is back to it’s trendline. Watch for a move through it, but be on guard for a false break.