After getting stopped out of two fast trades yesterday, I called it a day. Anyone who’s watching the financial pundits, is aware the Fed’s decision on rate change, will be a catalyst for movement.

Cooper’s thinking if the S&P cash stays below 1480 after the announcement, it’s a negative. If 1470 breaks, 1400 may be in the future. I’m not so sure we won’t see the upper trendline break…suck ‘em in, and fail. I’ll be loading shorts if that scenario plays out. As usual, it’s not the break that’s important, it’s the action after.

Rate cuts by Greenspan after the bubble crash DID NOT help a falling market immediately. It almost became a joke when the rate was cut. “Oh no, watch the market fall some more.” These gurus on tv act as if a rate cut will save the day. It won’t. When the fed cuts, it’s acknowledging a problem. That’s a negative that takes time to remedy.

I’ll look to fade the swings that usually occur after the Fed announcement. I definitely want to be trading in the direction of movement, once a trend is established. Up.. or down.

The SPX continues to wind tighter, as it awaits Uncle Ben’s decision on whether to leave the federal reserve rate policy unchanged. Wouldn’t a spike above that trend line at around 1487 suck in a few more bulls? Negatives include a falling 50 day moving average, two lower high pivots, and this market coil is occurring below a significant major pivot high of 1555.90 from July. A strong move may be coming.

My longer term positions in QID and MZZ are betting on a market drop from here.

MZZ, the UltraShort MidCap 400 Proshares ETF, has confirmed a change in trend today. A higher low pivot near 50 dma support, was followed by a buy signal, after a 3 bar pullback. The 50 dma is rising, and as I write this, the ETF trades above all major moving averages. My stop is still under the September 4th low of 53.43. The stop moves to under 55.03 (the pivot low), after 58.57 is taken out. I could have taken 1/3 off the table near 58, but chose to not micromanage this position trade.

The UltraShort QQQ Proshares ETF is close to the same scenario as MZZ. A buy signal in QID today, changes the trend to up. Stop is still under the September 4th pivot, and will move to 42.66, once 45.56 is taken out. I’m not impressed with the moving averages, but like my reward to risk here still.

The monthly chart of QID is still in buy mode. A breach of the 40.63 low would negate the signal.