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Charts, Stock Picks, and Technical Analysis from an Online Stock Trading Veteran

February 15, 2008


It Pays To Watch the Bull-Bear Ratio Indicator Here

Filed under: Trading Psychology — Online Stock Trading @ 11:37 am

bull-bear-ratio-01.jpgWhen you see the Bull-Bear Percentage Ratio get to current levels, it usually indicates an important bottom. Every week a poll of investment advisors is taken by Investor’s Intelligence of New Rochelle, New York. The poll tracks investment advisors, to see whether they are bullish, bearish, or neutral on the stock market.

The Bull/Bear Ratio shows the percentage relationship between the bullish and bearish advisors. High readings of the Bull/Bear Ratio are bearish (there are too many bulls) and low readings are bullish (there are not enough bulls).

Current levels indicate the bulls down to 36.7%, and the bears at 35.6%. When the bulls get below 40%, it’s usually time to start thinking long. While it’s time to start shorting, when the bulls get over 60%.

Cramer mentioned it in a column on Wednesday,

“OK, this is really important. One of my most beloved indicators, the bull-bear ratio, has hit a level that simply means you cannot have a big hit to this market, and that level is the 36% bull level.

I know I am not a chartist, but I have sworn by two technical indicators all my trading life: the S&P Oscillator and the bull-bear ratio.

Any time we get severely oversold, I hold my nose and buy, any time we get the bull cohort below 40%, I have to buy something, and when it gets too close to 35%, you have to cover all shorts and get long.”

An indicator to ponder as the market tests important levels here intraday.

February 14, 2008


Backtesting the 20 DMAs - 021408

Filed under: Online Stock Trading — Online Stock Trading @ 1:56 pm

The market’s done a dandy job of slowly trading out of a bottom this week. Today’s pullback looks like a retest of the 20 day moving averages. You can’t expect green every day.

nasdaq-backtest-021408.jpg

I sold Ultra longs yesterday. Shorted some gold early today. Covered… and took the Ultra longs again… SSO QLD. 200 ma’s are working well.. especially on the smaller time frames, as pivot points, or areas of hesitation. One of my favorite indicators.

sso-021408.jpg

rimm-021408.jpg

aapl-021408.jpg

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