I’m not so sure that today’s lower close for oil stocks isn’t just a headfake. OIH broke above 221 yesterday, and should retest that level, which it quickly did today. The close below 221 raises red flags for a possible failed breakout, but I’m guessing not. Note how OIH stalled at the intraday 200 ma on the 5-minute chart. It shakes out longs with stops under 221, but doesn’t pull too far away either. Probably crazy, but I bought some DIG near the close.

I’ve been in and out of DUG, and waiting for another move lower to shake out some longs before really commiting anything there. I wouldn’t mind seeing a blowoff top type move in oil land here. We’ll see.

Ok. So technically the Nasdaq only reached 2352.10 today, but it filled that gap. Close enough. QID also came close enough to my 43 target, that we’ll call that move from the Nasdaq failed breakout, to here,… complete. Is it just coincidence that QID stalled at the 200 dma? Where’s the market going now? Well, I’m less confident in reading the market here, and expect a bit of chop first. Surprise! There’s an FOMC meeting tomorrow, which will provide some whippiness for sure.

Today’s trade to Nasdaq 2352.10, and the quick reversal, is a prime example why it’s tough to trade. I missed the bounce. I was about to pull the trigger on QLD, when it jumped .20 on me. I didn’t like the lower pivot, and was hesitating as it was. Had I been watching UWM, maybe it would have been easier to buy it’s signal. Note the higher low pivot. You’ve got to be watching the right stocks at the right time, and avoid any fear of pulling the trigger.