Will AAPL - Apple Shares See 125 Before 200?

Ok. 125 may be a little extreme for an AAPL share selloff, but I had to catch your attention. Or is it realistic?

Shares of AAPL stock traded down today, even with the hype surrounding the company’s Worldwide Developers Conference, and the rollout of new features for a 3G iPhone.

Now it’s tough shorting a monster stock, but the charts are indicating this run needs a rest.

The monthly AAPL chart found a pivot low near it’s 20 moving average, and has had three strong months higher. Yet, it’s failed to reach a new high there. The uptrend is still intact on this chart, until it forms a lower monthly candlestick. What I don’t like about it, is the angle of the incline. Notice the 45% angle 2004 - 2007. That’s healthy. This 3-month move is straight up, forming a possible V top, which could be a bearish signal.

The daily chart shows a clearer picture. AAPL has changed it’s trend to slightly neutral. A breakdown below that mini-base is bearish, and the two bottoming tails, indicate the bulls’ ability to step up when needed. The last pivot low must hold though, or AAPL could see 160, and the 200dma. The next major pivot low of 145 would need to hold, and finally a consolidation area around 125 would be next.

The stock has had quite a run. They’re innovative and always full of surprises, but I see some red flags that warrant caution if you’re long.