I mentioned in the January 4, 2012 stock market update, that the SPX would probably grind up to 1330. That looks like a lock here, as the index crosses the channel line. I’m expecting a spike to get us there. From there, that last pivot high arouund 1346 is doable.

The XIV ETF stock pick on December 1, 2012 has been a nice winner. We’re 30%, and eight candles up. I’m hoping for that spike higher in the market, which would help this inverse ETF.

With today’s strong upside move, the SPX and Nasdaq continue to tighten their formations.

XIV weekly continues higher. 20ma target achieved.

XIV is the inverse ETF for the VIX.X. When VIX.X drops, XIV rises. I like the looks of the XIV double bottom on the weekly chart. Target is that 20-day moving average.

I’ve never trusted triple bottoms or tops to hold up. This is the 4th day since the last pivot top in TNA. I just don’t believe we found a bottom in three days. Going to fight the trend, and went long TZA at 45.37.

You can’t complain when the ETF position you buy (last post) yields a 10% move in your direction the same day. DUST – the 2x Gold Miners Bear ETF jumped higher on the higher low pivot, stalling at the 200/150 daily moving average verge point.

Sold the TNA position I’d bought on 04/12/2011 for 11.5 points profit. This game isn’t about picking tops or bottoms, but taking the meat out of moves.  A pop over the recent highs becomes suspect after a seven day run.  Taking profits is prudent.

We are still in bull mode here in the market as April quickly comes to an end.

Here’s a chart of the e-mini NASDAQ futures for the June contract. Note how price followed the trend line down until we had the power bar explosion off of the trendline just a few days ago. You do not want to short stocks, equities, or ETF’s that show these characteristics. Don’t mess with the power bar. Technically this is the fifth day up for this move, so I’m guessing it could go for a couple of more days before we see a stall.  I am still riding the long position in the 3X Russell 2000 long ETF, symbol TNA.

With the price deterioration of these type of ETF’s, selling short TZA would also be a way to play it.

TZA has rallied up to it’s 20 day moving average, and just past it’s new resistance level.  It should stall here, and head back down.

I entered TNA long at 82.

On last week’s market dip, TNA found clear support at 68. That’s where I have my stop. The ETF has traded back to trendline resistance, and must get back above the 81 area and that upper trendline. I’m still bullish here, mainly because of that wide range power candle that gapped up to the 20 dma, and closed above that and the 50dma at the day’s high. That was the 4th lower high candle, so there’s still room for more.  That’s my aggressive stance.

There’s clear range now between 68 – 80 with the gap to fill  now, so sideways action is a high possibility.

7th candle up out of a sweet cup and handle formation targets 90.  Once they get to 90, they usually hit the 100.  TNA at Yahoo Finance.