OIH Targets 75

Hope you’re enjoying/or enjoyed this Independence Day weekend.

Oil sector stocks lost enough significant support Thursday, to target a price of 75 in the future for OIH. A head and shoulders pattern from 95-115 equals a measured move 20 points below the 95 neckline.

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I did think about taking a shot at ERY overnight on Wednesday, but didn’t. The ETF had pulled back seven days to it’s 20-day moving average. This pullback was the first since it’s big gap higher, and day high close.

ery-0703091Since I didn’t buy overnight, I bought the 5-minute high. I also bought SKF pre-market, and TZA fairly soon after the bell. Holding 50 percent of the positions into the holiday weekend played out with no significant pullbacks hitting my stops.

VIX and Put/Call Ratio – Sentiment Indicators

The levels of pessimism out there right now are a positive for the bulls. I’ve said that building a bottom is a process. Two indicators I watch for sentiment include the VIX – CBOE Volatility index and the equity p/c ratio. Watching them for extremes gives some insight to the bottoming process.

With this shocking news (BSC avoids bankruptcy by selling itself to JPM for under $300 million, when it’s stock price showed a value around $30 billion a few weeks ago!) out of BSC – Bear Stearns, the VIX spiked to 35.6. It reached 37.57 during the panic lows in January of 2008, and 37.5 in August of 2007. A chart is a chart, and this could end up being a double top for the VIX chart.

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If you look back on the VIX a few years, the VIX reached as high as 45 during the strong selloffs of 2002.

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The other indicator I watch for sentiment is the equity put/call ratio. I like to use the equity figures alone. You’ll get skewed numbers sometimes when the index figures are included.

The ratio has been over 1 lately. I’ve read an interpretation of the number, that says over .80 can indicate market bottoms. So when you get to 1.3 on the equity p/c it’s reaching a turning point. The longer it stays that way during the day, the better it is for the chances of a turn.

As with any market indicators, these are two tools to help traverse your way through the market, and should be used in combination with others in your trading arsenal.